http://www.tinmanic.com/archives/2008/10/19/short-election-night/ Wed, 08 Feb 2012 17:46:42 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3 http://www.tinmanic.com/archives/2008/10/19/short-election-night/comment-page-1/#comment-128736 Andy Mon, 20 Oct 2008 18:39:25 +0000 http://www.tinmanic.com/?p=2994#comment-128736 It's possible, but I think it's going to be a big news night. I mean, we are on the cusp of having the nation's first mixed-race president; that will be a remarkable milestone. Second, it may be close in terms of the total popular vote, but in terms of the electoral college there is a not-unreasonable chance of an Obama landslide (FiveThirtyEight.com gives him a 33% chance of getting 375 electoral votes). The news of the evening won't be "how fast does Obama clinch" but how big is the margin and which states are surprises? I think the early bellwether isn't Virginia but North Carolina. Besides, everybody knows that northern Virginia has been taken over by communists from DC. It’s possible, but I think it’s going to be a big news night. I mean, we are on the cusp of having the nation’s first mixed-race president; that will be a remarkable milestone. Second, it may be close in terms of the total popular vote, but in terms of the electoral college there is a not-unreasonable chance of an Obama landslide (FiveThirtyEight.com gives him a 33% chance of getting 375 electoral votes). The news of the evening won’t be “how fast does Obama clinch” but how big is the margin and which states are surprises? I think the early bellwether isn’t Virginia but North Carolina. Besides, everybody knows that northern Virginia has been taken over by communists from DC.

]]> http://www.tinmanic.com/archives/2008/10/19/short-election-night/comment-page-1/#comment-128726 Mike B. Sun, 19 Oct 2008 18:58:35 +0000 http://www.tinmanic.com/?p=2994#comment-128726 More people like voting for the winner, so if it affects turnout, it will probably be in the right direction. More people like voting for the winner, so if it affects turnout, it will probably be in the right direction.

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