This Newsweek poll is heartening: post-debate, Kerry and Bush are now even. And the poll was conducted from September 30 to October 2, which means that some of the polling was done before the first debate even took place, so I’d bet the real number is slightly more in Kerry’s favor.
But I’m not throwing confetti yet. There are two debates to go. And here’s an anecdote from 1984 to keep in mind:
In his first debate with Walter Mondale, [Reagan] appeared positively befuddled against his opponent’s mastery of detail, and post-debate polls showed some concern about whether Reagan was, at 73, too old for office.
But when Mr Mondale sought to make this an issue in the second debate – Reagan swiftly retorted: “I will not make age an issue of this campaign. I am not going to exploit, for political purposes, my opponent’s youth and inexperience.”
In one fell swoop the Reagan voters liked had returned: confident, witty and presidential.
The incumbent screwed up the first debate, then turned it around and got re-elected.
Yeah, W is no Reagan, but things now stand where they were before the first Bush-Gore debate four years ago: Bush once more has a chance to rise above low expectations. And I hope Kerry isn’t overconfident, because the Bush people probably learned a great deal from Thursday night and are ready to apply it.
We shall see.
On MeetThePress this morning someone mentioned that Bush’s team didn’t simulate an actual debate. Instead, they informally posed questions to him and then refined his answers. That style of prep. showed in his performance.
I am heartened as well. Hope it lasts. I think the next 2 debates and the VP debate may very well define the outcome of the election.
I feel really good about this for the first time in weeks. Kerry pulled it off — as I knew he could but worried about anyway — his spirits are up, he’s attacking bush viciously and deliciously on the stump, and he knows it’s working for him. He’s on a roll. even if they try to retool bush for the next debate i have full confidence that kerry has such extensive knowledge of bush’s flaws, failures and weaknesses that there’s nothing bush’s coterie of sycophants can do to prepare him.