I was thinking about an electoral dilemma last night.
This is the most open presidential election in years. How does a primary voter decide whom to vote for when he doesn’t even know who’s going to be the other party’s nominee?
Suppose the Democrats have two candidates, A and B, and the Republicans also have two candidates, 1 and 2.
Suppose you’ve evaluated the various candidates on factors such as experience, likeability, skill, policy positions, and so forth, and your calculations have led you to conclude the following about the American people:
In a general election contest between A and 1, A would beat 1.
In a contest between A and 2, 2 would beat A.
In a contest between B and 1, 1 would beat B.
In a contest between B and 2, B would beat 2.
So, A > 1 > B > 2 > A. If I could type a circle, that would be a circle.
Again, A and B are the Democrats.
Whom do you vote for if you don’t know whether the Republicans will nominate 1 or 2?
I don’t know.
It really sucks. I’m a registered Republican, but am supporting a Democrat. Do I vote in the Democrat Primary for the candidate I support, vote in the Republican Primary for the best Republican, or vote in the Republican Primary for the candidate most likely to lose to the the Democrat I support?
In our City Council races, we whittle down the field in a primary first. Then only the best candidates run in the runoff.
Whom do you vote for if you don’t know whether the Republicans will nominate 1 or 2?
Obama.
Personally, I would recommend you sit the whole thing out, and encourage your friends to do the same! :-)
You would like that, wouldn’t you… :)
I have an inkling of who 1 is, but who is 2?
:-)
Actually, I don’t really mind if all your friends in the Northeast vote. Heck, I live in a state where my vote never matters. But if you still have friends in Virgina… just tell them… Obama in ’09! :-)
I get e-mails from my favorite HS American History teacher every once in a while wondering if I’ve changed my stripes… on certain things yes, on other things no…