Obama and Florida

Hmm… this makes a really good point. Maybe it would be better for Obama to let the Florida primary results stand:

Suppose the results from the January primary are allowed to stand. This will net Clinton 37 pledged delegates, and therefore Obama’s pledged delegate lead will go from approximately 161 to 124. Now, even with this hit and a big loss in Pennsylvania, it seems unlikely that Senator Clinton can get within 100 pledged delegates of Obama (the popular vote, too, looks like a long shot for her). In this scenario I see almost no chance of Clinton getting the nomination.

But, what if there is a Florida revote in June? Clinton will probably win but only net, say, half as many delegates. But she will have won another big state, not to mention the last big contest heading into the convention. Is that talking point worth twenty delegates? I think it might be. Admittedly, it’s also unlikely that Clinton can win the nomination under this scenario, but it could be more likely. Clinton needs a game-changer, and a Florida re-vote in June might be the ticket. Again, I am not saying this is necessarily the case, but if I were Obama I might rather go into the convention with a 110 delegate lead and Florida a distant memory than with a 130 delegate lead and a slew of bad headlines.

Michigan’s Soviet primary is another story, where Clinton was the only named candidate on the ballot. “The results of those primaries were fair and should be honored,” Hillary Clinton said this morning. My god. She is beyond shameless.

Fine

Fine.

Clinton’s probably going to wind up getting the nomination through sheer determination. Florida and Michigan will hold revotes, and she’ll win them both, as well as Pennsylvania. Even if she doesn’t wind up with a delegate lead, she could wind up with a popular vote lead, and then she’ll convince the superdelegates to vote for her, arguing that she’d be a stronger nominee.

She’ll win that argument because as the weeks roll on, she’ll show that she’s right. Obama is beginning to run on fumes. This Rezko and Canada/NAFTA crap, real or not, caught him off guard. After the Clintons had to endure years of the Whitewater non-scandal, it’s breathtakingly hypocritical and cynical of them to push the Rezko thing. But they know how to get people talking about these things, and it adds to the perception that Obama hasn’t been fully vetted, even if these are ginned-up controversies. It’s meta-politics: look at all the problems you’re going to run into if you select Obama as your nominee.

As much as she pisses me off, Clinton seems to know how to go into attack mode. Obama doesn’t. God help us if we have another John Kerry who disdains attack politics and then gets clobbered by the Republican machine.

That 3 a.m. ad was good, because it played on fear and drew contrasts with Obama, and yet it wasn’t overtly negative. Obama needs to do something similar – some sort of hybrid ad. Of course, if he does that, he sullies his image, which is all he has going for him.

Clinton’s team, by its own actions, has shown the failure of Obama’s philosophy. Her team has shown that we can never reach consensus. Consensus requires cooperation from both sides, and if one side won’t cooperate, you’ve failed. Obama’s philosophy is based on the notion that the people are tired of the old politics and want change. But if majorities are falling for Clinton’s crap, then Obama’s philosophy is wrong.

We can never get past the old politics because the old politics is politics. The new politics is not actually politics. And democracy requires politics.

I feel personally wounded by all this. All my life, people have told me that I’m not practical, that I just don’t understand how the world works, that I’m naive. Or maybe it was just my parents who told me that. I wasted my law degree, I didn’t go for the high-paying job, et cetera. This just proves that people like my dad are right, that I’m an idiot, that I have no business being here.

I’m exaggerating a bit, but that’s how it makes me feel: that you people who support Hillary are the smart ones, and that I’m a fool. Fine. I get it. Enjoy your candidate, revel in her victory, and I’ll just sit back here in my stupidity, because really, I’m just too dumb to know any better, aren’t I?