Tag Archives: obama

Clinton Could Win

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Chris Bowers points out that even if Obama wins every primary before Super-Duper Tuesday on February 5th, Clinton could still have the most delegates and win the nomination:

Collectively, Clinton’s advantage in Super Delegates, Michigan, and February 5th home states provides her with roughly a 500 delegate advantage on Obama. If she were to also win Florida and California, which combine for 555 pledged delegates, it would be impossible for Obama to be ahead on delegates after February 5th. He could win every other state between now and February 6th, and never make up that sort of delegate deficit.

There are flaws in this analysis, as various commenters point out. But isn’t this fascinating? When was the last time the race was so fluid that people actually had to pay attention to delegate counts?

As for the Republican race – in which nobody seems to be a front-runner right now — I could see a scenario where February 5th doesn’t decide anything. If that happens, the last thing the Republicans would want is for a fight to break out at their nationally-televised convention in September, so there’d probably be some sort of brokered deal before then.

What a year.

Kristol Begins

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Bill Kristol’s first column for the New York Times — which runs in tomorrow’s paper — shows that he at least has a sense of humor.

We don’t want to increase the scope of the nanny state, we don’t want to undo the good done by the appointments of John Roberts and Samuel Alito to the Supreme Court, and we really don’t want to snatch defeat out of the jaws of victory in Iraq.

Oh. You mean he was being serious?

[Mike Huckabee] began by calmly mentioning his and Obama’s contrasting views on issues from guns to life to same-sex marriage. This served to remind Republicans that these contrasts have been central to G.O.P. success over the last quarter-century, and to suggest that Huckabee could credibly and comfortably make the socially conservative case in an electorally advantageous way.

So Kristol advocates running on the wedge issues. Not only is he ideologically blinkered — he also supports cynical politics. Does he have any redeeming qualities as a thinker?

Winner Take Some

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I still haven’t decided who I’m going to vote for in the New York primary next month.

I watched both the Republican and the Democratic debates last night. I watched the former for entertainment and the latter for information. I thought Obama and Clinton both acquitted themselves well. Edwards doesn’t seem to have much of a message other than “powerful people stand in your way,” and I’m sorry, but anger isn’t a plan.

One thing to keep in mind is that unlike in the general election in November, most Democratic presidential primaries are not winner-take-all; delegates are assigned somewhat proportionally to the vote the candidates receive. Therefore, if your favorite candidate isn’t polling among the top two candidates, you shouldn’t worry that you’d be throwing away your vote on that candidate or casting a spoiler vote.

Still – I honestly don’t know who I support.