Chris Cillizza writes about the remarkable nature of Obama’s impending nomination victory:
The facts are thus: Clinton came into the nomination fight heavily favored to be the nominee. Not only did she have the backing of the most potential political machine in the country — due in large part to her husband’s eight years in the White House — but she had also built a vaunted fundraising operation of her own and surrounded herself with some of the best and brightest aides in Democratic politics.
Obama, on the other hand, had served for two years in the U.S. Senate after doing a stint in the Illinois state Senate. He has toured the country for Democratic candidates during the 2006 election cycle and had begun to build a national organization through his Hopefund political action committee. (In fact, Obama often referred to himself as a “skinny kid with a funny name.”)
There seems little dispute that Obama over Clinton deserves a place in the conversation of great political upsets.
Whether it makes you happy or sad, it’s pretty amazing. Clinton was supposed to be the nominee. People had talked about it for years. She was the wife of a popular two-term Democratic ex-president, and she had money and loyalty. The Clinton machine was intimidatingly unbeatable.
And then Obama happened.
Despite the talk of racism hurting Obama among whites, there’s a good argument for the notion that his race helped him as much as his hurt him.
[E]very four years, the candidate who is the new politics, new left darling, whether it’s Howard Dean or whether it’s Bill Bradley or whether it’s Gene McCarthy, has historically fallen on the shoals of the white working-class vote… And that candidate would always make a big splash early in the contest and there would be a lot of media attention… [but] ultimately what would happen is working-class whites and working-class nonwhites would align behind another candidate. …
[I]f you think of the Democratic Party as working-class whites, working-class blacks… and then the elite class, whatever that is, the cappuccino, latte class… and trichotomize the Democratic Party coalition as those three things, if you can get two of the three you’re probably going to be the nominee.
If you see Obama as a black Bill Bradley or Howard Dean, then the reason he did so well is that in addition to the “elite”-type voters, he also got the black voters — unlike Bradley or Dean, who only got the “elites,” while the more mainstream candidate got everyone else. The argument is basically that if Obama had been white, he would have gone the way of his “new politics” predecessors and faded away. Also, by this argument, a large chunk of the white population voted against him not because he’s black, but because he’s the “elitist” candidate. Just as they supposedly wouldn’t support Bradley or Dean, they wouldn’t support Obama, either.
That doesn’t mean there isn’t racism going on as well. Or at least some sort of quasi-xenophobia. As David Brooks writes today:
These independent voters were intrigued by Obama’s “change†message, but they knew almost nothing about him except that he used to go to the Rev. Jeremiah Wright’s church. It’s as if they can’t hang Obama’s life onto anything from their own immediate experiences and, as a result, he is an abstraction.
Basically, Obama is just too weird an idea for some people.
Now that he’ll be able to run a race without one hand tied behind his back, he needs to spend some time focusing on his personal narrative.
And Clinton needs to campaign full-steam for him so we can get a Democrat back in the White House. She needs to hammer away at McCain and convince her supporters that she does *not* want them to vote for him. Whether she can do this, I don’t know. But unless she wants McCain to get elected and appoint a couple more Supreme Court justices, she’d damn well better work her ass off for the ticket.
